Comments for Stephen Heise http://www.stephenheise.com Thu, 07 Aug 2008 23:26:12 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.3.1 Comment on Is somebody stealing your identity on Google AdWords? by Matt Cutts http://www.stephenheise.com/2008/05/26/is-somebody-stealing-your-identity-on-google-adwords/#comment-550 Matt Cutts Tue, 27 May 2008 20:31:07 +0000 http://www.stephenheise.com/2008/05/26/is-somebody-stealing-your-identity-on-google-adwords/#comment-550 Hey Stephen, I mentioned this to some ads folks, so I think that this is on their radar. I don't see the ad you mentioned above anymore, for example, and I think people are talking about different ways to shut down advertisers that do bad things. Best wishes, Matt Cutts Hey Stephen, I mentioned this to some ads folks, so I think that this is on their radar. I don’t see the ad you mentioned above anymore, for example, and I think people are talking about different ways to shut down advertisers that do bad things.

Best wishes,
Matt Cutts

]]> Comment on U.S. Real Estate Market Cooling Down by Stephen Heise » U.S. Real Estate Correcting Fast; Sanity by September? http://www.stephenheise.com/2007/12/17/us-real-estate-market-cooling-down/#comment-522 Stephen Heise » U.S. Real Estate Correcting Fast; Sanity by September? Fri, 23 May 2008 00:30:17 +0000 http://www.stephenheise.com/2007/12/17/us-real-estate-market-cooling-down/#comment-522 [...] comes from today’s OFHEO data release. Methods are the same as my original home price heatmap. The dataset spreadsheet for this release is made available [...] […] comes from today’s OFHEO data release. Methods are the same as my original home price heatmap. The dataset spreadsheet for this release is made available […]

]]> Comment on Top 300 Most Overpriced Cities in Q3 2007 by loutran http://www.stephenheise.com/2008/02/11/top-300-most-overpriced-cities-in-q3-2007/#comment-147 loutran Mon, 25 Feb 2008 01:05:06 +0000 http://www.stephenheise.com/2008/02/11/top-300-most-overpriced-cities-in-q3-2007/#comment-147 Good job Stephen. I guess I'll be buying in Anderson, IN!! Good job Stephen. I guess I’ll be buying in Anderson, IN!!

]]> Comment on U.S. Real Estate Market Cooling Down by stephen http://www.stephenheise.com/2007/12/17/us-real-estate-market-cooling-down/#comment-11 stephen Tue, 25 Dec 2007 01:53:44 +0000 http://www.stephenheise.com/2007/12/17/us-real-estate-market-cooling-down/#comment-11 Bo-- I suspect that you are right in your assumption that the OFHEO data does not take into account extensive remodeling or the supersizing of a small home into a McMansion. Depending on their sources, gov't statisticians might have access to the reported land and home square footage such as provided by <a href="http://www.dataquick.com/" rel="nofollow">DataQuick</a> in which case they could treat data discrepancies as discontinuities. A similar technique could be employed in the absence of home size data by finding the consensus growth rate and then systematically killing off one outlaying data point at a time until the desired fit quality is reached. A summary of the techniques actually employed by the OFHEO in compiling the data can be found at http://www.ofheo.gov/Media/Archive/house/hpi_tech.pdf Your point on non-linear local effects are in my opinion perfectly valid in the case of mononucleated one company towns such as Bethlehem, Pennsylvania whose fortunes rose and fell with the fortunes of Bethlehem Steel. However I think that your example of the Google effect on real estate prices near Mountain View, California is more of a scarcity issue due to low turnover momentarily driving up prices. Eric-- Sure, why not?! I've marked my calendar for February 26th when the Q4 data is scheduled to be released. Bo– I suspect that you are right in your assumption that the OFHEO data does not take into account extensive remodeling or the supersizing of a small home into a McMansion. Depending on their sources, gov’t statisticians might have access to the reported land and home square footage such as provided by DataQuick in which case they could treat data discrepancies as discontinuities. A similar technique could be employed in the absence of home size data by finding the consensus growth rate and then systematically killing off one outlaying data point at a time until the desired fit quality is reached. A summary of the techniques actually employed by the OFHEO in compiling the data can be found at
http://www.ofheo.gov/Media/Archive/house/hpi_tech.pdf

Your point on non-linear local effects are in my opinion perfectly valid in the case of mononucleated one company towns such as Bethlehem, Pennsylvania whose fortunes rose and fell with the fortunes of Bethlehem Steel. However I think that your example of the Google effect on real estate prices near Mountain View, California is more of a scarcity issue due to low turnover momentarily driving up prices.

Eric– Sure, why not?! I’ve marked my calendar for February 26th when the Q4 data is scheduled to be released.

]]> Comment on U.S. Real Estate Market Cooling Down by Eric also http://www.stephenheise.com/2007/12/17/us-real-estate-market-cooling-down/#comment-9 Eric also Mon, 24 Dec 2007 15:06:38 +0000 http://www.stephenheise.com/2007/12/17/us-real-estate-market-cooling-down/#comment-9 Do you have an interest in keeping this updated as the info continues to be released quarterly? Wonderful data presentation. Thanks! Do you have an interest in keeping this updated as the info continues to be released quarterly?

Wonderful data presentation. Thanks!

]]> Comment on U.S. Real Estate Market Cooling Down by skip http://www.stephenheise.com/2007/12/17/us-real-estate-market-cooling-down/#comment-7 skip Mon, 24 Dec 2007 12:20:48 +0000 http://www.stephenheise.com/2007/12/17/us-real-estate-market-cooling-down/#comment-7 I'm from Michigan. You won't believe the bargains in this incredibly beautiful state. I’m from Michigan. You won’t believe the bargains in this incredibly beautiful state.

]]> Comment on U.S. Real Estate Market Cooling Down by Eric http://www.stephenheise.com/2007/12/17/us-real-estate-market-cooling-down/#comment-5 Eric Sun, 23 Dec 2007 13:50:09 +0000 http://www.stephenheise.com/2007/12/17/us-real-estate-market-cooling-down/#comment-5 I agree with Evo's comment. Excellent first blog post. Keep it going. I agree with Evo’s comment. Excellent first blog post. Keep it going.

]]> Comment on U.S. Real Estate Market Cooling Down by Ivo Vegter http://www.stephenheise.com/2007/12/17/us-real-estate-market-cooling-down/#comment-3 Ivo Vegter Sat, 22 Dec 2007 12:19:56 +0000 http://www.stephenheise.com/2007/12/17/us-real-estate-market-cooling-down/#comment-3 Impressive. If you're going to be blogging more often, you've established a high standard to maintain. On the other hand, you could simply invest in Michigan and never have to work again, so you'll have plenty time for fascinating posts like this. Impressive. If you’re going to be blogging more often, you’ve established a high standard to maintain.

On the other hand, you could simply invest in Michigan and never have to work again, so you’ll have plenty time for fascinating posts like this.

]]> Comment on U.S. Real Estate Market Cooling Down by Bo Adler http://www.stephenheise.com/2007/12/17/us-real-estate-market-cooling-down/#comment-2 Bo Adler Fri, 21 Dec 2007 03:55:15 +0000 http://www.stephenheise.com/2007/12/17/us-real-estate-market-cooling-down/#comment-2 Wow, a nice little analysis! One thing I wonder about is the OFHEO data: what about when property is bought by a developer and "repartitioned" into condos or something? And during the boom in California, it was very common in my area to buy a house, raze it to the ground, and build a bigger house... which means that "same home sales" is a weird number. I expect that it washes out when you're looking at the aggregate numbers; as a case in point, my whole neighborhood upgraded in this way, so home prices rose together. Another point: the linear regression feels "funny" to me. I know that this is just a first-pass analysis, but the general implication of a linear assumption is that prices always go up. And maybe that's reasonable, given how the government is striving to expand the economy, but I wonder if there is some easy way to compare the prices with the economic health of a specific region. (Take, for instance, the influx of Googlers to Mountain View, and how that changes home prices in the area, despite the general California economy.) Anyway, great job! Wow, a nice little analysis!

One thing I wonder about is the OFHEO data: what about when property is bought by a developer and “repartitioned” into condos or something? And during the boom in California, it was very common in my area to buy a house, raze it to the ground, and build a bigger house… which means that “same home sales” is a weird number. I expect that it washes out when you’re looking at the aggregate numbers; as a case in point, my whole neighborhood upgraded in this way, so home prices rose together.

Another point: the linear regression feels “funny” to me. I know that this is just a first-pass analysis, but the general implication of a linear assumption is that prices always go up. And maybe that’s reasonable, given how the government is striving to expand the economy, but I wonder if there is some easy way to compare the prices with the economic health of a specific region. (Take, for instance, the influx of Googlers to Mountain View, and how that changes home prices in the area, despite the general California economy.)

Anyway, great job!

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