real estate24 Feb 2009 01:35 pm
When Will California and Florida Hit Bottom?
Based on today’s calculated home price heat index data it is possible to use a linear approximation to guesstimate when home prices will bottom out. Here are the results for California and Florida:
| When Will California Hit Bottom? | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Time To Bottom | Heat Index | 1Yr Change | City |
| 21-29 months | 1.08 | -12% | Chico, California |
| 14-21 months | 1.05 | -16% | Redding, California |
| 12-23 months | 0.96 | -11% | San Francisco - San Mateo - Redwood City, California |
| 10-15 months | 1.04 | -22% | Visalia - Porterville, California |
| 10-18 months | 0.98 | -15% | San Luis Obispo - Paso Robles, California |
| 9-14 months | 1.02 | -21% | Los Angeles - Long Beach - Glendale, California |
| 9-14 months | 0.99 | -20% | Santa Ana - Anaheim - Irvine, California |
| 8-13 months | 1.03 | -25% | Fresno, California |
| 7-11 months | 1.03 | -29% | Bakersfield, California |
| 6-12 months | 0.96 | -21% | Hanford - Corcoran, California |
| 6-12 months | 0.94 | -20% | San Diego - Carlsbad - San Marcos, California |
| 6-14 months | 0.91 | -14% | San Jose - Sunnyvale - Santa Clara, California |
| 5-13 months | 0.91 | -16% | Santa Cruz - Watsonville, California |
| 4-9 months | 0.91 | -22% | Oxnard - Thousand Oaks - Ventura, California |
| 3-11 months | 0.89 | -18% | Santa Barbara - Santa Maria - Goleta, California |
| 2-5 months | 0.89 | -35% | Riverside - San Bernardino - Ontario, California |
| 1-7 months | 0.87 | -22% | Napa, California |
| 1-7 months | 0.86 | -23% | Sacramento - Arden - Arcade - Roseville, California |
| 1-8 months | 0.87 | -21% | Oakland - Fremont - Hayward, California |
| 0-5 months | 0.85 | -30% | Madera - Chowchilla, California |
| 0-7 months | 0.85 | -20% | Santa Rosa - Petaluma, California |
| at market bottom | 0.76 | -31% | Yuba City, California |
| at market bottom | 0.76 | -36% | Vallejo - Fairfield, California |
| at market bottom | 0.76 | -33% | El Centro, California |
| at market bottom | 0.75 | -34% | Salinas, California |
| at market bottom | 0.73 | -38% | Modesto, California |
| at market bottom | 0.68 | -41% | Stockton, California |
| at market bottom | 0.59 | -50% | Merced, California |
| When Will Florida Hit Bottom? | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Time To Bottom | Heat Index | 1Yr Change | City |
| 47-62 months | 1.16 | -6% | Tallahassee, Florida |
| 29-38 months | 1.16 | -11% | Jacksonville, Florida |
| 21-30 months | 1.08 | -12% | Gainesville, Florida |
| 20-31 months | 1.02 | -10% | Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent, Florida |
| 17-24 months | 1.12 | -16% | Lakeland - Winter Haven, Florida |
| 17-27 months | 1.02 | -11% | Panama City - Lynn Haven - Panama City Beach, Florida |
| 15-20 months | 1.11 | -19% | Orlando - Kissimmee, Florida |
| 14-21 months | 1.07 | -16% | Ocala, Florida |
| 13-19 months | 1.08 | -19% | Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater, Florida |
| 12-16 months | 1.14 | -25% | Miami - Miami Beach - Kendall, Florida |
| 11-17 months | 1.06 | -21% | Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach, Florida |
| 10-15 months | 1.04 | -22% | West Palm Beach - Boca Raton - Boynton Beach, Florida |
| 9-13 months | 1.06 | -26% | Fort Lauderdale - Pompano Beach - Deerfield Beach, Florida |
| 8-14 months | 1.00 | -21% | Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville, Florida |
| 8-15 months | 0.97 | -18% | Palm Coast, Florida |
| 8-15 months | 0.96 | -17% | Fort Walton Beach - Crestview - Destin, Florida |
| 7-13 months | 0.97 | -21% | Port St. Lucie, Florida |
| 5-12 months | 0.93 | -20% | Sebastian - Vero Beach, Florida |
| 3-8 months | 0.91 | -26% | Bradenton - Sarasota - Venice, Florida |
| at market bottom | 0.79 | -35% | Naples - Marco Island, Florida |
| at market bottom | 0.79 | -34% | Cape Coral - Fort Myers, Florida |
| at market bottom | 0.76 | -31% | Punta Gorda, Florida |
To calculate these figures, a heat index range of 0.75 to 0.85 is used as a proxy for the bottom of the local market.
February 25th, 2009 at 8:33 am
Twelve to sixteen months for Miami and Miami Beach. Looks like the market will remain a buyers market for quite a while. Very informative, thank you.
March 9th, 2009 at 11:28 am
This is excellent. Do you have bottom list for washington DC suburban (Northen virignia)?
March 9th, 2009 at 11:52 pm
The same technique yields a guess that the Washington D.C. & Arlington - Alexandria, Virginia area will hit bottom in 19-27 months. The heat index for that region as of Q4 2008 was 1.10 and at that time was falling at year-over-year rate of 14%.
Another hard hit area nearby is Winchester, Virginia. That region is on track to hit its local bottom in the second half of this year, once prices there fall another 10 to 20%.
April 21st, 2009 at 8:09 pm
We will be okey, here in California as soon as the Pelosi’s Arnold’s, Boxers and Feinsteins have learned that it is the people that rule, and the public coffers are not to serve their own personal agendas, which is making money for themselves and their family and friends.
The bottom in California will hit when we as a voting people rid ourselves of the incompetence that seems to rule our political scene.