February 2008


real estate26 Feb 2008 10:33 am

Blogger’s Note: In response to reader demand, I have decided to make this animation a regular feature. The next installment will coincide with the May 22 data release.

Homes in The West from Washington state to California to Texas continue to sell at prices well above the long-term inflation-adjusted trend. There is the smallest of hints that New Hampshire, New York, and Pennsylvania are beginning to cool. Ohio and Indiana appear to be holding ground as their neighbor Michigan continues to have woes.

To show the trends I’ve produced an inflation adjusted heat map reflecting today’s OFHEO data release. The methodologies are the same as the original heatmap.

Red means that homes in the state are selling for prices above the historical price trend and blue indicates that homes are selling for prices below the area’s long-term trend based on same-home sales data. The movie starts in 1975 and runs through December 2007.

For more on how I did it, please refer to my detailed original post. The tab-delimited data set I used to construct this animation is here.

real estate11 Feb 2008 12:02 am

As a way of whetting your appetite — with just fifteen days to go until the next OFHEO House Price Index data release — I thought it would be neat to compile an Overprice Index using the same data set I used to generate the popular U.S. house price heat map animation.

Based on gov’t historical local growth rate data for homes in each metropolitan statistical area (MSA) going back to 1975, this table ranks each surveyed city from most overvalued to most undervalued. Assuming that the inflation-adjusted same-house sale price growth rate trend (rightmost number) continues, this table lets you see at a glance how hot (or not) a particular metro area is and how much of a home price premium you’d typically pay (or discount you’d get) if you bought a home there today.

Rank City Home Price Premium (Discount) Historic Long Term Home Price Growth (Shrink) Rate Beyond Inflation
1. Midland, TX +67.1% -2.08%
2. Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL +65.7% +1.86%
3. Bakersfield, CA +60.3% +0.13%
4. Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach, FL +57.4% +1.16%
5. Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA +51.6% +1.53%
6. Phoenix-Mesa-Scottdale, AZ +51.4% +0.95%
7. Fresno, CA +51.2% +0.72%
8. Odessa, TX +50.6% -1.17%
9. Orlando-Kissimmee, FL +48.0% +1.02%
10. West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Boynton Beach, FL +47.3% +1.19%
11. Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL +44.5% +1.15%
12. Visalia-Porterville, CA +43.5% +0.69%
13. Lakeland, FL +43.4% +0.96%
14. Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC +43.3% +1.11%
15. Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA +41.6% +2.62%
16. Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL +41.4% +1.45%
17. Las Vegas-Paradise, NV +41.2% +0.84%
18. Jacksonville, FL +38.9% +1.19%
19. Tucson, AZ +37.5% +1.10%
20. Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL +37.3% +0.87%
21. Baltimore-Towson, MD +37.1% +1.67%
22. Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV +36.6% +2.01%
23. Santa Ana-Anaheim-Irvine, CA +36.1% +2.47%
24. Port St. Lucie, FL +35.6% +1.49%
25. Kingston, NY +33.4% +1.11%
25. Richmond, VA +33.4% +0.74%
27. Boise City-Nampa, ID +33.3% +1.16%
27. New Orleans-Metairie-Kenner, LA +33.3% -0.12%
29. Wenatchee, WA +33.0% +1.67%
30. Bremerton-Silverdale, WA +32.6% +2.10%
31. Atlantic City, NJ +32.5% +2.00%
32. Redding, CA +32.3% +1.77%
33. Modesto, CA +31.7% +1.95%
34. El Paso, TX +31.6% -0.71%
35. Madera, CA +31.4% +2.86%
36. Spokane, WA +31.2% +1.06%
37. Salt Lake City, UT +31.1% +1.54%
37. Tacoma, WA +31.1% +2.12%
39. Sarasota-Bradenton-Venice, FL +31.0% +1.96%
40. Anchorage, AK +30.9% +0.05%
40. Baton Rouge, LA +30.9% -0.56%
42. Chico, CA +30.8% +1.83%
43. Merced, CA +30.5% +2.09%
43. Portland-Vancouver-Beaverton, OR-WA +30.5% +2.21%
45. Reno-Sparks, NV +30.4% +1.08%
46. Bethesda-Gaithersburg-Frederick, MD +30.3% +2.00%
46. Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZ +30.3% +2.09%
46. San Antonio, TX +30.3% -1.03%
49. Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, NJ +29.7% +1.28%
50. Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL +29.5% +2.35%
51. Gainesville, FL +29.3% +2.09%
52. Charleston-North Charleston, SC +28.4% +1.93%
53. Lafayette, LA +27.9% -0.42%
53. Oklahoma City, OK +27.9% -1.18%
55. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX +27.8% -1.23%
56. Binghamton, NY +27.6% -1.14%
57. Eugene-Springfield, OR +27.4% +2.17%
58. Tallahassee, FL +27.3% +1.14%
59. Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX +27.1% -1.12%
60. Naples-Marco Island, FL +27.0% +4.22%
61. Hanford-Corcoran, CA +26.9% +2.20%
62. Albuquerque, NM +26.6% +0.50%
62. Corpus Christi, TX +26.6% -0.94%
62. Stockton, CA +26.6% +2.14%
65. Ocean City, NJ +26.3% +3.50%
65. Oxnard-Thousand Oaks-Ventura, CA +26.3% +2.64%
67. San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA +25.6% +2.65%
67. Vallejo-Fairfield, CA +25.6% +2.51%
69. Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA +25.5% +2.86%
70. Dover, DE +25.3% +1.24%
70. Ithaca, NY +25.3% +0.11%
72. Charlottesville, VA +24.9% +2.32%
72. Salinas, CA +24.9% +3.51%
74. Norwich-New London, CT +24.7% +0.68%
75. Honolulu, HI +23.8% +2.44%
76. Flagstaff, AZ-UT +23.6% +3.59%
76. Sebastian-Vero Beach, FL +23.6% +2.16%
78. Yuma, AZ +23.5% +2.51%
79. Camden, NJ +23.4% +1.65%
79. Ocala, FL +23.4% +3.20%
81. Casper, WY +23.1% +3.36%
82. Harrisonburg, VA +23.0% +1.41%
82. Pittsfield, MA +23.0% +0.21%
84. Bellingham, WA +22.9% +2.73%
85. Longview, TX +22.5% -0.26%
86. Lewiston-Auburn, ME +22.3% +0.59%
87. Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PA-NJ +22.2% +1.16%
88. Utica-Rome, NY +22.0% -0.54%
89. Coeur d’Alene, ID +21.8% +2.86%
90. Austin-Round Rock, TX +21.7% +0.35%
91. Las Cruces, NM +21.5% +0.87%
91. Panama City-Lynn Haven, FL +21.5% +2.86%
91. San Angelo, TX +21.5% -0.08%
94. Philadelphia, PA +21.1% +1.73%
94. Sacramento-Arden-Arcade-Roseville, CA +21.1% +2.16%
96. El Centro, CA +20.9% +3.14%
96. Ogden-Clearfield, UT +20.9% +0.99%
98. Winchester, VA-WV +20.6% +2.74%
99. San Luis Obispo-Paso Robles, CA +20.5% +2.93%
100. Fort Walton Beach-Crestview-Destin, FL +20.3% +2.86%
101. Wilmington, NC +20.2% +2.58%
102. Hagerstown-Martinsburg, MD-WV +20.1% +2.45%
103. Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA +20.0% +3.19%
104. Napa, CA +19.9% +3.61%
105. Palm Coast, FL +19.7% +2.93%
106. Edison, NJ +19.6% +2.47%
106. Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL +19.6% +1.52%
106. Savannah, GA +19.6% +2.03%
109. Prescott, AZ +19.5% +3.41%
110. Glens Falls, NY +19.3% +2.29%
110. Salisbury, MD +19.3% +3.00%
112. Tulsa, OK +19.1% -0.94%
113. Idaho Falls, ID +18.9% +0.90%
114. Bend, OR +18.8% +4.89%
114. Wilmington, DE-MD-NJ +18.8% +1.84%
116. York-Hanover, PA +18.7% +1.07%
117. Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, SC +18.6% +2.39%
117. Santa Barbara-Santa Maria-Goleta, CA +18.6% +2.99%
119. Olympia, WA +18.3% +2.90%
120. Cumberland, MD-WV +18.2% +2.35%
121. Burlington-South Burlington, VT +18.1% +1.62%
121. Salem, OR +18.1% +2.25%
123. Shreveport-Bossier City, LA +18.0% -0.10%
124. Lewiston, ID-WA +17.9% +2.25%
125. Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY +17.8% +2.09%
125. Reading, PA +17.8% +0.75%
127. Punta Gorda, FL +17.6% +2.75%
128. Mobile, AL +17.4% +0.81%
129. Asheville, NC +17.0% +2.68%
129. Trenton-Ewing, NJ +17.0% +1.94%
131. Farmington, NM +16.9% +2.16%
132. Bangor, ME +16.8% +1.10%
133. Brunswick, GA +16.7% +2.66%
133. Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI +16.7% +1.40%
135. Topeka, KS +16.5% -0.51%
136. Barnstable Town, MA +16.4% +2.62%
137. Lancaster, PA +16.3% +0.86%
138. St. George, UT +16.2% +3.15%
139. New Haven-Milford, CT +16.1% +1.44%
140. Chicago-Naperville-Joliet, IL +15.9% +1.61%
141. Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY +15.8% +1.58%
141. Fort Worth-Arlington, TX +15.8% -1.05%
141. Manchester-Nashua, NH +15.8% +1.40%
141. Milwaukee-Waukesha-West Allis, WI +15.8% +1.06%
141. New York-White Plains-Wayne, NY-NJ +15.8% +3.20%
141. St. Louis, MO-IL +15.8% +0.52%
147. Augusta-Richmond County, GA-SC +15.7% +0.10%
147. College Station-Bryan, TX +15.7% -0.31%
149. Davenport-Moline-Rock Island, IA-IL +15.4% -0.08%
149. Grand Junction, CO +15.4% +3.81%
149. Newark-Union, NJ-PA +15.4% +2.60%
149. Rockingham County-Strafford County, NH +15.4% +1.68%
153. Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR +15.2% -0.19%
153. Portland-South Portland-Biddeford, ME +15.2% +1.93%
155. Amarillo, TX +14.9% -0.08%
155. Wichita, KS +14.9% -0.87%
157. Mount Vernon-Anacortes, WA +14.6% +3.52%
158. Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, TX +14.4% -0.23%
158. Tyler, TX +14.4% -0.01%
160. Huntsville, AL +14.3% -0.22%
160. Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA +14.3% +3.76%
162. Carson City, NV +14.1% +3.11%
162. Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux, LA +14.1% +1.81%
164. Lebanon, PA +14.0% +0.95%
165. Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA +13.8% +0.73%
165. San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA +13.8% +3.73%
165. San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA +13.8% +3.79%
168. Yuba City, CA +13.7% +3.04%
169. Lynchburg, VA +13.6% +1.35%
170. Abilene, TX +13.4% +0.16%
170. Kansas City, MO-KS +13.4% +0.08%
172. Columbus, GA-AL +13.3% +0.87%
173. Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX +13.1% -0.76%
173. Fairbanks, AK +13.1% +1.31%
173. Rockford, IL +13.1% +0.02%
176. Bismarck, ND +13.0% +1.43%
176. Jacksonville, NC +13.0% +2.85%
178. Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT +12.9% +0.94%
179. Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT +12.8% +2.09%
179. Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA +12.8% +3.24%
181. Jackson, MS +12.7% -0.11%
182. Nassau-Suffolk, NY +12.5% +3.69%
183. Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, AR-MO +12.4% +1.10%
183. Roanoke, VA +12.4% +1.52%
185. Madison, WI +12.3% +1.44%
186. Knoxville, TN +12.1% +1.12%
186. Providence-New Bedford-Fall River, RI-MA +12.1% +2.70%
188. Billings, MT +11.8% +2.15%
188. Lake Charles, LA +11.8% +1.09%
190. Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN +11.7% +1.14%
191. Gulfport-Biloxi, MS +11.6% +2.73%
192. Alexandria, LA +11.4% +1.07%
192. Des Moines-West Des Moines, IA +11.4% +0.29%
192. Lubbock, TX +11.4% -0.60%
195. Columbia, SC +11.0% +0.51%
195. Montgomery, AL +11.0% -0.03%
197. Birmingham-Hoover, AL +10.9% +0.71%
198. Dothan, AL +10.5% +1.04%
198. State College, PA +10.5% +1.41%
200. Longview, WA +10.4% +2.73%
200. Provo-Orem, UT +10.4% +2.93%
200. Santa Fe, NM +10.4% +3.00%
203. Lexington-Fayette, KY +10.2% +0.36%
203. Pascagoula, MS +10.2% +2.49%
205. Pittsburgh, PA +10.1% +0.33%
205. Springfield, MA +10.1% +1.90%
205. Syracuse, NY +10.1% +0.02%
208. Lawton, OK +9.92% +0.76%
209. Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford, VA +9.90% +2.00%
210. Medford, OR +9.75% +4.59%
211. Auburn-Opelika, AL +9.63% +1.67%
212. Peoria, IL +9.47% +0.64%
213. Chattanooga, TN-GA +9.24% +1.16%
214. Waco, TX +9.19% +0.22%
215. Sumter, SC +9.13% +1.49%
216. Champaign-Urbana, IL +8.78% +0.77%
217. Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, NC-SC +8.67% +0.94%
218. Elmira, NY +8.64% +0.20%
219. Wichita Falls, TX +8.59% +0.44%
220. Albany, GA +8.22% +0.32%
221. Colorado Springs, CO +8.11% +1.25%
222. Fayetteville, NC +8.01% +0.31%
223. Kingsport-Bristol-Bristol, TN-VA +7.97% +1.34%
224. Great Falls, MT +7.96% +1.95%
224. Pocatello, ID +7.96% +1.82%
226. Cheyenne, WY +7.61% +1.91%
227. Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA +7.55% +0.78%
228. Morgantown, WV +7.38% +2.50%
229. Fargo, ND-MN +7.35% +1.06%
229. McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX +7.35% +0.01%
231. Monroe, LA +7.32% +0.85%
232. Springfield, MO +7.30% +0.52%
233. Decatur, AL +7.06% +0.17%
234. Texarkana, TX-Texarkana, AR +6.93% +0.95%
235. Fort Smith, AR-OK +6.90% +0.52%
236. Williamsport, PA +6.85% +0.85%
237. Raleigh-Cary, NC +6.82% +0.80%
238. Scranton-Wilkes-Barre, PA +6.71% +1.63%
239. Grand Forks, ND-MN +6.70% +1.77%
240. Pine Bluff, AR +6.68% +1.06%
241. Valdosta, GA +6.59% +1.78%
242. Gary, IN +6.52% +0.70%
243. Danville, VA +6.51% +1.25%
244. Macon, GA +6.49% +0.28%
245. Durham, NC +6.29% +1.14%
246. Corvallis, OR +5.92% +3.69%
247. Hot Springs, AR +5.80% +2.15%
248. Missoula, MT +5.68% +4.37%
249. Lake County-Kenosha County, IL-WI +5.65% +1.68%
250. Hattiesburg, MS +5.58% +2.08%
251. Laredo, TX +5.56% +0.82%
252. Columbia, MO +5.47% +0.89%
253. Denver-Aurora, CO +5.44% +1.45%
254. Omaha-Council Bluffs, NE-IA +5.41% +0.42%
255. Victoria, TX +5.33% +0.58%
256. Johnstown, PA +5.27% +1.92%
257. Memphis, TN-MS-AR +5.21% +0.19%
258. Greenville-Mouldin-Easley, SC +4.94% +0.79%
259. Morristown, TN +4.92% +2.20%
260. Athens-Clarke County, GA +4.90% +1.51%
261. Louisville-Jefferson County, KY-IN +4.87% +0.97%
262. Brownsville-Harlingen, TX +4.69% +0.76%
263. Racine, WI +4.65% +1.95%
264. Evansville, IN-KY +4.43% +0.34%
265. Warner Robins, GA +4.42% +0.22%
266. Anniston-Oxford, AL +4.34% +1.59%
267. Dalton, GA +4.23% +1.15%
268. Pueblo, CO +4.20% +1.00%
269. Kennewick-Richland-Pasco, WA +4.12% +0.59%
270. Huntington-Ashland, WV-KY-OH +4.10% +1.35%
271. Greenville, NC +4.09% +0.38%
272. Sherman-Denison, TX +4.07% +0.19%
273. Cincinnati-Middletown, OH-KY-IN +4.03% +0.44%
274. Florence-Muscle Shoals, AL +3.96% +0.38%
275. Kankakee-Bradley, IL +3.94% +1.67%
275. La Crosse, WI-MN +3.94% +1.94%
277. Altoona, PA +3.58% +2.02%
278. Johnson City, TN +3.46% +1.93%
279. Clarksville, TN-KY +3.45% +1.52%
280. Danville, IL +3.21% +1.24%
281. Worcester, MA +3.14% +2.49%
282. Jefferson City, MO +3.03% +1.08%
283. Winston-Salem, NC +2.93% +0.48%
284. Duluth, MN-WI +2.85% +3.65%
285. Florence, SC +2.75% +1.11%
285. Hickory-Lenoir-Morganton, NC +2.75% +1.39%
287. Gainesville, GA +2.68% +1.81%
288. Rochester, MN +2.49% +1.37%
289. Yakima, WA +2.48% +2.29%
290. Lincoln, NE +2.27% +0.64%
291. Elizabethtown, KY +2.15% +1.97%
292. Charleston, WV +2.07% +0.70%
292. Fort Wayne, IN +2.07% -0.46%
294. Fort Collins-Loveland, CO +1.90% +1.78%
295. Wheeling, WV-OH +1.86% +1.69%
296. Boulder, CO +1.70% +2.47%
297. Eau Claire, WI +1.63% +2.30%
298. Kalamazoo-Portage, MI +1.54% +0.98%
299. Buffalo-Niagara Falls, NY +1.47% +0.58%
300. Tuscaloosa, AL +1.43% +1.81%
301. Hinesville-Fort Stewart, GA +0.88% +5.29%
302. Rochester, NY +0.82% -0.14%
303. Springfield, IL +0.55% +0.14%
304. Toledo, OH +0.41% +0.41%
305. Decatur, IL +0.38% +0.69%
305. Oshkosh-Neenah, WI +0.38% +1.42%
307. Cedar Rapids, IA +0.33% +0.69%
308. Columbus, OH +0.16% +0.69%
309. Sheboygan, WI +0.15% +2.16%
310. Rocky Mount, NC +0.08% +0.15%
311. Greensboro-High Point, NC +0.05% +0.55%
312. St. Cloud, MN +0.04% +2.89%
313. Elkhart-Goshen, IN -0.02% +0.84%
314. Lansing-East Lansing, MI -0.21% +0.93%
315. Bloomington-Normal, IL -0.33% +0.88%
316. Janesville, WI -0.34% +2.11%
317. Joplin, MO -0.45% +1.05%
318. Sioux Falls, SD -0.47% +1.67%
319. Cleveland, TN -0.51% +2.33%
320. Lawrence, KS -0.59% +2.22%
321. Indianapolis-Carmel, IN -0.61% +0.40%
322. St. Joseph, MO-KS -0.68% +1.98%
323. Wausau, WI -0.82% +1.98%
324. Appleton, WI -0.89% +1.27%
324. Peabody, MA -0.89% +3.01%
326. Waterloo-Cedar Falls, IA -0.93% +2.54%
327. Erie, PA -0.96% +1.11%
328. Anderson, SC -1.00% +1.50%
328. Boston-Quincy, MA -1.00% +3.46%
330. Bloomington, IN -1.04% +1.41%
331. Gadsden, AL -1.08% +2.10%
332. Fond du Lac, WI -1.30% +2.15%
333. Dubuque, IA -1.36% +1.86%
334. Jackson, TN -1.46% +0.58%
335. Terre Haute, IN -1.61% +0.80%
336. Logan, UT-ID -1.75% +2.66%
337. Lima, OH -1.83% +0.93%
338. Bowling Green, KY -1.87% +1.21%
339. Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH -1.88% +0.48%
339. South Bend-Mishawaka, IN-MI -1.88% +1.03%
341. Rome, GA -1.90% +1.78%
342. Goldsboro, NC -1.96% +0.99%
343. Niles-Benton Harbor, MI -2.06% +2.61%
344. Spartanburg, SC -2.19% +0.98%
345. Rapid City, SD -2.27% +3.28%
346. Canton-Massillon, OH -2.35% +0.59%
347. Dayton, OH -2.95% +0.40%
348. Akron, OH -3.03% +0.75%
349. Weirton-Steubenville, WV-OH -3.42% +2.04%
350. Owensboro, KY -3.60% +0.75%
351. Cambridge-Newton-Framingham, MA -3.69% +3.26%
352. Iowa City, IA -3.86% +1.49%
353. Parkersburg-Marietta-Vienna, WV-OH -3.91% +1.38%
354. Michigan City-La Porte, IN -4.05% +2.21%
355. Green Bay, WI -4.67% +1.86%
356. Burlington, NC -5.54% +0.76%
357. Ames, IA -5.69% +1.82%
358. Sioux City, IA-NE-SD -6.17% +1.46%
359. Columbus, IN -6.31% +1.30%
360. Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA -6.46% +1.27%
361. Jonesboro, AR -6.49% +0.73%
362. Grand Rapids-Wyoming, MI -6.96% +1.42%
363. Flint, MI -7.32% +1.07%
364. Springfield, OH -8.03% +1.38%
365. Holland-Grand Haven, MI -8.42% +1.78%
366. Muncie, IN -8.47% +1.07%
367. Saginaw-Saginaw Township North, MI -9.13% +1.29%
368. Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills, MI -9.24% +1.58%
369. Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn, MI -9.92% +1.70%
370. Lafayette, IN -9.93% +0.76%
371. Battle Creek, MI -10.1% +2.37%
372. Ann Arbor, MI -10.5% +1.78%
373. Kokomo, IN -10.6% +1.17%
374. Sandusky, OH -10.8% +1.84%
375. Muskegon-North Shores, MI -11.3% +2.05%
376. Mansfield, OH -11.7% +1.57%
377. Greeley, CO -11.8% +2.60%
378. Bay City, MI -14.0% +2.86%
379. Jackson, MI -15.3% +3.05%
380. Monroe, MI -15.5% +2.53%
381. Anderson, IN -15.6% +1.64%