California and Nevada home prices are now firmly in a bottoming out stage that is likely to last until the end of 2009. Apart from Michigan, home prices in the rest of the U.S. are holding out remarkably well. Energy rich states Texas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming are fairing best.
This animation was generated based on data released today by the FHFA (formerly OFHEO). Methodology is that of my original home price heatmap. For the data hounds, you can download the compiled numerical results for Q1 2009.
Colors on the heat maps are keyed as follows: red is for homes that are selling above their historical price trend and blue highlights those states with sale prices below their long-term inflation adjusted trend based on same-home sales data that spans over 30 years, from 1975 through March 2009. Typically regions experience approximately 20 year cycles with values ranging from 85% to 115% of baseline with each city area following the march of a different drummer. However in this most recent ramp up, all major U.S. cities (and anecdotally globally as well) synchronized to be on the same boom-bust cycle.