real estate27 May 2009 06:42 am

California and Nevada home prices are now firmly in a bottoming out stage that is likely to last until the end of 2009. Apart from Michigan, home prices in the rest of the U.S. are holding out remarkably well. Energy rich states Texas, Oklahoma, and Wyoming are fairing best.

This animation was generated based on data released today by the FHFA (formerly OFHEO). Methodology is that of my original home price heatmap. For the data hounds, you can download the compiled numerical results for Q1 2009.

Colors on the heat maps are keyed as follows: red is for homes that are selling above their historical price trend and blue highlights those states with sale prices below their long-term inflation adjusted trend based on same-home sales data that spans over 30 years, from 1975 through March 2009. Typically regions experience approximately 20 year cycles with values ranging from 85% to 115% of baseline with each city area following the march of a different drummer. However in this most recent ramp up, all major U.S. cities (and anecdotally globally as well) synchronized to be on the same boom-bust cycle.

real estate30 Mar 2009 03:59 am

For the data hungry, I’ve compiled these detailed city graphs showing heat index trends since 1975. In addition to the 48 contiguous U.S. states shown in the animation, these charts include Alaska, Hawaii, and DC.

Along the left hand side of each graph you will find the historical growth rate for that city expressed as the consumer price index (CPI) plus the additional growth rate percentage as calculated by regression analysis. The values displayed are the published home values divided by the idealized historical growth trend for that city.

For a complete data immersion experience tile the graphs. Or if you have a 2000 pixel or larger display, see the full size tiled version.

[Note: Y-axis labels (growth rate) corrected on April 5th 2009.]

Alabama
Home Heat Index for Anniston - Oxford, AL
Home Heat Index for Auburn - Opelika, AL
Home Heat Index for Birmingham - Hoover, AL
Home Heat Index for Columbus, GA - AL
Home Heat Index for Decatur, AL
Home Heat Index for Dothan, AL
Home Heat Index for Florence - Muscle Shoals, AL
Home Heat Index for Gadsden, AL
Home Heat Index for Huntsville, AL
Home Heat Index for Mobile, AL
Home Heat Index for Montgomery, AL
Home Heat Index for Tuscaloosa, AL
Alaska
Home Heat Index for Anchorage, AK
Home Heat Index for Fairbanks, AK
Arizona
Home Heat Index for Flagstaff, AZ - UT
Home Heat Index for Lake Havasu City - Kingman, AZ
Home Heat Index for Phoenix - Mesa - Scottdale, AZ
Home Heat Index for Prescott, AZ
Home Heat Index for Tucson, AZ
Home Heat Index for Yuma, AZ
Arkansas
Home Heat Index for Fayetteville - Springdale - Rogers, AR - MO
Home Heat Index for Fort Smith, AR - OK
Home Heat Index for Hot Springs, AR
Home Heat Index for Jonesboro, AR
Home Heat Index for Little Rock - North Little Rock - Conway, AR
Home Heat Index for Memphis, TN - MS - AR
Home Heat Index for Pine Bluff, AR
Home Heat Index for Texarkana, TX - Texarkana, AR
California
Home Heat Index for Bakersfield, CA
Home Heat Index for Chico, CA
Home Heat Index for El Centro, CA
Home Heat Index for Fresno, CA
Home Heat Index for Hanford - Corcoran, CA
Home Heat Index for Los Angeles - Long Beach - Glendale, CA
Home Heat Index for Madera - Chowchilla, CA
Home Heat Index for Merced, CA
Home Heat Index for Modesto, CA
Home Heat Index for Napa, CA
Home Heat Index for Oakland - Fremont - Hayward, CA
Home Heat Index for Oxnard - Thousand Oaks - Ventura, CA
Home Heat Index for Redding, CA
Home Heat Index for Riverside - San Bernardino - Ontario, CA
Home Heat Index for Sacramento - Arden - Arcade - Roseville, CA
Home Heat Index for Salinas, CA
Home Heat Index for San Diego - Carlsbad - San Marcos, CA
Home Heat Index for San Francisco - San Mateo - Redwood City, CA
Home Heat Index for San Jose - Sunnyvale - Santa Clara, CA
Home Heat Index for San Luis Obispo - Paso Robles, CA
Home Heat Index for Santa Ana - Anaheim - Irvine, CA
Home Heat Index for Santa Barbara - Santa Maria - Goleta, CA
Home Heat Index for Santa Cruz - Watsonville, CA
Home Heat Index for Santa Rosa - Petaluma, CA
Home Heat Index for Stockton, CA
Home Heat Index for Vallejo - Fairfield, CA
Home Heat Index for Visalia - Porterville, CA
Home Heat Index for Yuba City, CA
Colorado
Home Heat Index for Boulder, CO
Home Heat Index for Colorado Springs, CO
Home Heat Index for Denver - Aurora - Broomfield, CO
Home Heat Index for Fort Collins - Loveland, CO
Home Heat Index for Grand Junction, CO
Home Heat Index for Greeley, CO
Home Heat Index for Pueblo, CO
Connecticut
Home Heat Index for Bridgeport - Stamford - Norwalk, CT
Home Heat Index for Hartford - West Hartford - East Hartford, CT
Home Heat Index for New Haven - Milford, CT
Home Heat Index for Norwich - New London, CT
Delaware
Home Heat Index for Dover, DE
Home Heat Index for Wilmington, DE - MD - NJ
District of Columbia
Home Heat Index for Washington - Arlington - Alexandria, DC - VA - MD - WV
Florida
Home Heat Index for Bradenton - Sarasota - Venice, FL
Home Heat Index for Cape Coral - Fort Myers, FL
Home Heat Index for Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach, FL
Home Heat Index for Fort Walton Beach - Crestview - Destin, FL
Home Heat Index for Ft. Lauderdale - Pompano Bch. - Deerfield Bch., FL
Home Heat Index for Gainesville, FL
Home Heat Index for Jacksonville, FL
Home Heat Index for Lakeland - Winter Haven, FL
Home Heat Index for Miami - Miami Beach - Kendall, FL
Home Heat Index for Naples - Marco Island, FL
Home Heat Index for Ocala, FL
Home Heat Index for Orlando - Kissimmee, FL
Home Heat Index for Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville, FL
Home Heat Index for Palm Coast, FL
Home Heat Index for Panama City - Lynn Haven - Panama City Beach, FL
Home Heat Index for Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent, FL
Home Heat Index for Port St. Lucie, FL
Home Heat Index for Punta Gorda, FL
Home Heat Index for Sebastian - Vero Beach, FL
Home Heat Index for Tallahassee, FL
Home Heat Index for Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater, FL
Home Heat Index for West Palm Beach - Boca Raton - Boynton Beach, FL
Georgia
Home Heat Index for Albany, GA
Home Heat Index for Athens - Clarke County, GA
Home Heat Index for Atlanta - Sandy Springs - Marietta, GA
Home Heat Index for Augusta - Richmond County, GA - SC
Home Heat Index for Brunswick, GA
Home Heat Index for Chattanooga, TN - GA
Home Heat Index for Columbus, GA - AL
Home Heat Index for Dalton, GA
Home Heat Index for Gainesville, GA
Home Heat Index for Hinesville - Fort Stewart, GA
Home Heat Index for Macon, GA
Home Heat Index for Rome, GA
Home Heat Index for Savannah, GA
Home Heat Index for Valdosta, GA
Home Heat Index for Warner Robins, GA
Hawaii
Home Heat Index for Honolulu, HI
Idaho
Home Heat Index for Boise City - Nampa, ID
Home Heat Index for Coeur d'Alene, ID
Home Heat Index for Idaho Falls, ID
Home Heat Index for Lewiston, ID - WA
Home Heat Index for Logan, UT - ID
Home Heat Index for Pocatello, ID
Illinois
Home Heat Index for Bloomington - Normal, IL
Home Heat Index for Cape Girardeau - Jackson, MO - IL
Home Heat Index for Champaign - Urbana, IL
Home Heat Index for Chicago - Naperville - Joliet, IL
Home Heat Index for Danville, IL
Home Heat Index for Davenport - Moline - Rock Island, IA - IL
Home Heat Index for Decatur, IL
Home Heat Index for Kankakee - Bradley, IL
Home Heat Index for Lake County - Kenosha County, IL - WI
Home Heat Index for Peoria, IL
Home Heat Index for Rockford, IL
Home Heat Index for Springfield, IL
Home Heat Index for St. Louis, MO - IL
Indiana
Home Heat Index for Anderson, IN
Home Heat Index for Bloomington, IN
Home Heat Index for Cincinnati - Middletown, OH - KY - IN
Home Heat Index for Columbus, IN
Home Heat Index for Elkhart - Goshen, IN
Home Heat Index for Evansville, IN - KY
Home Heat Index for Fort Wayne, IN
Home Heat Index for Gary, IN
Home Heat Index for Indianapolis - Carmel, IN
Home Heat Index for Kokomo, IN
Home Heat Index for Lafayette, IN
Home Heat Index for Louisville - Jefferson County, KY - IN
Home Heat Index for Michigan City - La Porte, IN
Home Heat Index for Muncie, IN
Home Heat Index for South Bend - Mishawaka, IN - MI
Home Heat Index for Terre Haute, IN
Iowa
Home Heat Index for Ames, IA
Home Heat Index for Cedar Rapids, IA
Home Heat Index for Davenport - Moline - Rock Island, IA - IL
Home Heat Index for Des Moines - West Des Moines, IA
Home Heat Index for Dubuque, IA
Home Heat Index for Iowa City, IA
Home Heat Index for Omaha - Council Bluffs, NE - IA
Home Heat Index for Sioux City, IA - NE - SD
Home Heat Index for Waterloo - Cedar Falls, IA
Kansas
Home Heat Index for Kansas City, MO - KS
Home Heat Index for Lawrence, KS
Home Heat Index for Manhattan, KS
Home Heat Index for St. Joseph, MO - KS
Home Heat Index for Topeka, KS
Home Heat Index for Wichita, KS
Kentucky
Home Heat Index for Bowling Green, KY
Home Heat Index for Cincinnati - Middletown, OH - KY - IN
Home Heat Index for Clarksville, TN - KY
Home Heat Index for Elizabethtown, KY
Home Heat Index for Evansville, IN - KY
Home Heat Index for Huntington - Ashland, WV - KY - OH
Home Heat Index for Lexington - Fayette, KY
Home Heat Index for Louisville - Jefferson County, KY - IN
Home Heat Index for Owensboro, KY
Louisiana
Home Heat Index for Alexandria, LA
Home Heat Index for Baton Rouge, LA
Home Heat Index for Houma - Bayou Cane - Thibodaux, LA
Home Heat Index for Lafayette, LA
Home Heat Index for Lake Charles, LA
Home Heat Index for Monroe, LA
Home Heat Index for New Orleans - Metairie - Kenner, LA
Home Heat Index for Shreveport - Bossier City, LA
Maine
Home Heat Index for Bangor, ME
Home Heat Index for Lewiston - Auburn, ME
Home Heat Index for Portland - South Portland - Biddeford, ME
Maryland
Home Heat Index for Baltimore - Towson, MD
Home Heat Index for Bethesda - Frederick - Rockville, MD
Home Heat Index for Cumberland, MD - WV
Home Heat Index for Hagerstown - Martinsburg, MD - WV
Home Heat Index for Salisbury, MD
Home Heat Index for Washington - Arlington - Alexandria, DC - VA - MD - WV
Home Heat Index for Wilmington, DE - MD - NJ
Massachusetts
Home Heat Index for Barnstable Town, MA
Home Heat Index for Boston - Quincy, MA
Home Heat Index for Cambridge - Newton - Framingham, MA
Home Heat Index for Peabody, MA
Home Heat Index for Pittsfield, MA
Home Heat Index for Providence - New Bedford - Fall River, RI - MA
Home Heat Index for Springfield, MA
Home Heat Index for Worcester, MA
Michigan
Home Heat Index for Ann Arbor, MI
Home Heat Index for Battle Creek, MI
Home Heat Index for Bay City, MI
Home Heat Index for Detroit - Livonia - Dearborn, MI
Home Heat Index for Flint, MI
Home Heat Index for Grand Rapids - Wyoming, MI
Home Heat Index for Holland - Grand Haven, MI
Home Heat Index for Jackson, MI
Home Heat Index for Kalamazoo - Portage, MI
Home Heat Index for Lansing - East Lansing, MI
Home Heat Index for Monroe, MI
Home Heat Index for Muskegon - North Shores, MI
Home Heat Index for Niles - Benton Harbor, MI
Home Heat Index for Saginaw - Saginaw Township North, MI
Home Heat Index for South Bend - Mishawaka, IN - MI
Home Heat Index for Warren - Troy - Farmington Hills, MI
Minnesota
Home Heat Index for Duluth, MN - WI
Home Heat Index for Fargo, ND - MN
Home Heat Index for Grand Forks, ND - MN
Home Heat Index for La Crosse, WI - MN
Home Heat Index for Mankato - North Mankato, MN
Home Heat Index for Minneapolis - St. Paul - Bloomington, MN - WI
Home Heat Index for Rochester, MN
Home Heat Index for St. Cloud, MN
Mississippi
Home Heat Index for Gulfport - Biloxi, MS
Home Heat Index for Hattiesburg, MS
Home Heat Index for Jackson, MS
Home Heat Index for Memphis, TN - MS - AR
Home Heat Index for Pascagoula, MS
Missouri
Home Heat Index for Cape Girardeau - Jackson, MO - IL
Home Heat Index for Columbia, MO
Home Heat Index for Fayetteville - Springdale - Rogers, AR - MO
Home Heat Index for Jefferson City, MO
Home Heat Index for Joplin, MO
Home Heat Index for Kansas City, MO - KS
Home Heat Index for Springfield, MO
Home Heat Index for St. Joseph, MO - KS
Home Heat Index for St. Louis, MO - IL
Montana
Home Heat Index for Billings, MT
Home Heat Index for Great Falls, MT
Home Heat Index for Missoula, MT
Nebraska
Home Heat Index for Lincoln, NE
Home Heat Index for Omaha - Council Bluffs, NE - IA
Home Heat Index for Sioux City, IA - NE - SD
Nevada
Home Heat Index for Carson City, NV
Home Heat Index for Las Vegas - Paradise, NV
Home Heat Index for Reno - Sparks, NV
New Hampshire
Home Heat Index for Manchester - Nashua, NH
Home Heat Index for Rockingham County - Strafford County, NH
New Jersey
Home Heat Index for Allentown - Bethlehem - Easton, PA - NJ
Home Heat Index for Atlantic City - Hammonton, NJ
Home Heat Index for Camden, NJ
Home Heat Index for Edison - New Brunswick, NJ
Home Heat Index for New York - White Plains - Wayne, NY - NJ
Home Heat Index for Newark - Union, NJ - PA
Home Heat Index for Ocean City, NJ
Home Heat Index for Trenton - Ewing, NJ
Home Heat Index for Vineland - Millville - Bridgeton, NJ
Home Heat Index for Wilmington, DE - MD - NJ
New Mexico
Home Heat Index for Albuquerque, NM
Home Heat Index for Farmington, NM
Home Heat Index for Las Cruces, NM
Home Heat Index for Santa Fe, NM
New York
Home Heat Index for Albany - Schenectady - Troy, NY
Home Heat Index for Binghamton, NY
Home Heat Index for Buffalo - Niagara Falls, NY
Home Heat Index for Elmira, NY
Home Heat Index for Glens Falls, NY
Home Heat Index for Ithaca, NY
Home Heat Index for Kingston, NY
Home Heat Index for Nassau - Suffolk, NY
Home Heat Index for New York - White Plains - Wayne, NY - NJ
Home Heat Index for Poughkeepsie - Newburgh - Middletown, NY
Home Heat Index for Rochester, NY
Home Heat Index for Syracuse, NY
Home Heat Index for Utica - Rome, NY
North Carolina
Home Heat Index for Asheville, NC
Home Heat Index for Burlington, NC
Home Heat Index for Charlotte - Gastonia - Concord, NC - SC
Home Heat Index for Durham - Chapel Hill, NC
Home Heat Index for Fayetteville, NC
Home Heat Index for Goldsboro, NC
Home Heat Index for Greensboro - High Point, NC
Home Heat Index for Greenville, NC
Home Heat Index for Hickory - Lenoir - Morganton, NC
Home Heat Index for Jacksonville, NC
Home Heat Index for Raleigh - Cary, NC
Home Heat Index for Rocky Mount, NC
Home Heat Index for Virginia Beach - Norfolk - Newport News, VA - NC
Home Heat Index for Wilmington, NC
Home Heat Index for Winston - Salem, NC
North Dakota
Home Heat Index for Bismarck, ND
Home Heat Index for Fargo, ND - MN
Home Heat Index for Grand Forks, ND - MN
Ohio
Home Heat Index for Akron, OH
Home Heat Index for Canton - Massillon, OH
Home Heat Index for Cincinnati - Middletown, OH - KY - IN
Home Heat Index for Cleveland - Elyria - Mentor, OH
Home Heat Index for Columbus, OH
Home Heat Index for Dayton, OH
Home Heat Index for Huntington - Ashland, WV - KY - OH
Home Heat Index for Lima, OH
Home Heat Index for Mansfield, OH
Home Heat Index for Parkersburg - Marietta - Vienna, WV - OH
Home Heat Index for Sandusky, OH
Home Heat Index for Springfield, OH
Home Heat Index for Toledo, OH
Home Heat Index for Weirton - Steubenville, WV - OH
Home Heat Index for Wheeling, WV - OH
Home Heat Index for Youngstown - Warren - Boardman, OH - PA
Oklahoma
Home Heat Index for Fort Smith, AR - OK
Home Heat Index for Lawton, OK
Home Heat Index for Oklahoma City, OK
Home Heat Index for Tulsa, OK
Oregon
Home Heat Index for Bend, OR
Home Heat Index for Corvallis, OR
Home Heat Index for Eugene - Springfield, OR
Home Heat Index for Medford, OR
Home Heat Index for Portland - Vancouver - Beaverton, OR - WA
Home Heat Index for Salem, OR
Pennsylvania
Home Heat Index for Allentown - Bethlehem - Easton, PA - NJ
Home Heat Index for Altoona, PA
Home Heat Index for Erie, PA
Home Heat Index for Harrisburg - Carlisle, PA
Home Heat Index for Johnstown, PA
Home Heat Index for Lancaster, PA
Home Heat Index for Lebanon, PA
Home Heat Index for Newark - Union, NJ - PA
Home Heat Index for Philadelphia, PA
Home Heat Index for Pittsburgh, PA
Home Heat Index for Reading, PA
Home Heat Index for Scranton - Wilkes - Barre, PA
Home Heat Index for State College, PA
Home Heat Index for Williamsport, PA
Home Heat Index for York - Hanover, PA
Home Heat Index for Youngstown - Warren - Boardman, OH - PA
Rhode Island
Home Heat Index for Providence - New Bedford - Fall River, RI - MA
South Carolina
Home Heat Index for Anderson, SC
Home Heat Index for Augusta - Richmond County, GA - SC
Home Heat Index for Charleston - North Charleston - Summerville, SC
Home Heat Index for Charlotte - Gastonia - Concord, NC - SC
Home Heat Index for Columbia, SC
Home Heat Index for Florence, SC
Home Heat Index for Greenville - Mouldin - Easley, SC
Home Heat Index for Myrtle Beach - North Myrtle Beach - Conway, SC
Home Heat Index for Spartanburg, SC
Home Heat Index for Sumter, SC
South Dakota
Home Heat Index for Rapid City, SD
Home Heat Index for Sioux City, IA - NE - SD
Home Heat Index for Sioux Falls, SD
Tennessee
Home Heat Index for Chattanooga, TN - GA
Home Heat Index for Clarksville, TN - KY
Home Heat Index for Cleveland, TN
Home Heat Index for Jackson, TN
Home Heat Index for Johnson City, TN
Home Heat Index for Kingsport - Bristol - Bristol, TN - VA
Home Heat Index for Knoxville, TN
Home Heat Index for Memphis, TN - MS - AR
Home Heat Index for Morristown, TN
Home Heat Index for Nashville - Davidson -  - Murfreesboro -  - Franklin, TN
Texas
Home Heat Index for Abilene, TX
Home Heat Index for Amarillo, TX
Home Heat Index for Austin - Round Rock, TX
Home Heat Index for Beaumont - Port Arthur, TX
Home Heat Index for Brownsville - Harlingen, TX
Home Heat Index for College Station - Bryan, TX
Home Heat Index for Corpus Christi, TX
Home Heat Index for Dallas - Plano - Irving, TX
Home Heat Index for El Paso, TX
Home Heat Index for Fort Worth - Arlington, TX
Home Heat Index for Houston - Sugar Land - Baytown, TX
Home Heat Index for Killeen - Temple - Fort Hood, TX
Home Heat Index for Laredo, TX
Home Heat Index for Longview, TX
Home Heat Index for Lubbock, TX
Home Heat Index for McAllen - Edinburg - Mission, TX
Home Heat Index for Midland, TX
Home Heat Index for Odessa, TX
Home Heat Index for San Angelo, TX
Home Heat Index for San Antonio, TX
Home Heat Index for Sherman - Denison, TX
Home Heat Index for Tyler, TX
Home Heat Index for Victoria, TX
Home Heat Index for Waco, TX
Home Heat Index for Wichita Falls, TX
Utah
Home Heat Index for Flagstaff, AZ - UT
Home Heat Index for Logan, UT - ID
Home Heat Index for Ogden - Clearfield, UT
Home Heat Index for Provo - Orem, UT
Home Heat Index for Salt Lake City, UT
Home Heat Index for St. George, UT
Vermont
Home Heat Index for Burlington - South Burlington, VT
Virginia
Home Heat Index for Blacksburg - Christiansburg - Radford, VA
Home Heat Index for Charlottesville, VA
Home Heat Index for Danville, VA
Home Heat Index for Harrisonburg, VA
Home Heat Index for Kingsport - Bristol - Bristol, TN - VA
Home Heat Index for Lynchburg, VA
Home Heat Index for Richmond, VA
Home Heat Index for Roanoke, VA
Home Heat Index for Virginia Beach - Norfolk - Newport News, VA - NC
Home Heat Index for Washington - Arlington - Alexandria, DC - VA - MD - WV
Home Heat Index for Winchester, VA - WV
Washington
Home Heat Index for Bellingham, WA
Home Heat Index for Bremerton - Silverdale, WA
Home Heat Index for Kennewick - Pasco - Richland, WA
Home Heat Index for Lewiston, ID - WA
Home Heat Index for Longview, WA
Home Heat Index for Mount Vernon - Anacortes, WA
Home Heat Index for Olympia, WA
Home Heat Index for Portland - Vancouver - Beaverton, OR - WA
Home Heat Index for Seattle - Bellevue - Everett, WA
Home Heat Index for Spokane, WA
Home Heat Index for Tacoma, WA
Home Heat Index for Wenatchee - East Wenatchee, WA
Home Heat Index for Yakima, WA
West Virginia
Home Heat Index for Charleston, WV
Home Heat Index for Cumberland, MD - WV
Home Heat Index for Hagerstown - Martinsburg, MD - WV
Home Heat Index for Huntington - Ashland, WV - KY - OH
Home Heat Index for Morgantown, WV
Home Heat Index for Parkersburg - Marietta - Vienna, WV - OH
Home Heat Index for Washington - Arlington - Alexandria, DC - VA - MD - WV
Home Heat Index for Weirton - Steubenville, WV - OH
Home Heat Index for Wheeling, WV - OH
Home Heat Index for Winchester, VA - WV
Wisconsin
Home Heat Index for Appleton, WI
Home Heat Index for Duluth, MN - WI
Home Heat Index for Eau Claire, WI
Home Heat Index for Fond du Lac, WI
Home Heat Index for Green Bay, WI
Home Heat Index for Janesville, WI
Home Heat Index for La Crosse, WI - MN
Home Heat Index for Lake County - Kenosha County, IL - WI
Home Heat Index for Madison, WI
Home Heat Index for Milwaukee - Waukesha - West Allis, WI
Home Heat Index for Minneapolis - St. Paul - Bloomington, MN - WI
Home Heat Index for Oshkosh - Neenah, WI
Home Heat Index for Racine, WI
Home Heat Index for Sheboygan, WI
Home Heat Index for Wausau, WI
Wyoming
Home Heat Index for Casper, WY
Home Heat Index for Cheyenne, WY
real estate24 Feb 2009 01:35 pm

Based on today’s calculated home price heat index data it is possible to use a linear approximation to guesstimate when home prices will bottom out. Here are the results for California and Florida:

When Will California Hit Bottom?
Time To Bottom Heat Index 1Yr Change City
21-29 months 1.08 -12% Chico, California
14-21 months 1.05 -16% Redding, California
12-23 months 0.96 -11% San Francisco - San Mateo - Redwood City, California
10-15 months 1.04 -22% Visalia - Porterville, California
10-18 months 0.98 -15% San Luis Obispo - Paso Robles, California
9-14 months 1.02 -21% Los Angeles - Long Beach - Glendale, California
9-14 months 0.99 -20% Santa Ana - Anaheim - Irvine, California
8-13 months 1.03 -25% Fresno, California
7-11 months 1.03 -29% Bakersfield, California
6-12 months 0.96 -21% Hanford - Corcoran, California
6-12 months 0.94 -20% San Diego - Carlsbad - San Marcos, California
6-14 months 0.91 -14% San Jose - Sunnyvale - Santa Clara, California
5-13 months 0.91 -16% Santa Cruz - Watsonville, California
4-9 months 0.91 -22% Oxnard - Thousand Oaks - Ventura, California
3-11 months 0.89 -18% Santa Barbara - Santa Maria - Goleta, California
2-5 months 0.89 -35% Riverside - San Bernardino - Ontario, California
1-7 months 0.87 -22% Napa, California
1-7 months 0.86 -23% Sacramento - Arden - Arcade - Roseville, California
1-8 months 0.87 -21% Oakland - Fremont - Hayward, California
0-5 months 0.85 -30% Madera - Chowchilla, California
0-7 months 0.85 -20% Santa Rosa - Petaluma, California
at market bottom 0.76 -31% Yuba City, California
at market bottom 0.76 -36% Vallejo - Fairfield, California
at market bottom 0.76 -33% El Centro, California
at market bottom 0.75 -34% Salinas, California
at market bottom 0.73 -38% Modesto, California
at market bottom 0.68 -41% Stockton, California
at market bottom 0.59 -50% Merced, California

 

 

When Will Florida Hit Bottom?
Time To Bottom Heat Index 1Yr Change City
47-62 months 1.16 -6% Tallahassee, Florida
29-38 months 1.16 -11% Jacksonville, Florida
21-30 months 1.08 -12% Gainesville, Florida
20-31 months 1.02 -10% Pensacola - Ferry Pass - Brent, Florida
17-24 months 1.12 -16% Lakeland - Winter Haven, Florida
17-27 months 1.02 -11% Panama City - Lynn Haven - Panama City Beach, Florida
15-20 months 1.11 -19% Orlando - Kissimmee, Florida
14-21 months 1.07 -16% Ocala, Florida
13-19 months 1.08 -19% Tampa - St. Petersburg - Clearwater, Florida
12-16 months 1.14 -25% Miami - Miami Beach - Kendall, Florida
11-17 months 1.06 -21% Deltona - Daytona Beach - Ormond Beach, Florida
10-15 months 1.04 -22% West Palm Beach - Boca Raton - Boynton Beach, Florida
9-13 months 1.06 -26% Fort Lauderdale - Pompano Beach - Deerfield Beach, Florida
8-14 months 1.00 -21% Palm Bay - Melbourne - Titusville, Florida
8-15 months 0.97 -18% Palm Coast, Florida
8-15 months 0.96 -17% Fort Walton Beach - Crestview - Destin, Florida
7-13 months 0.97 -21% Port St. Lucie, Florida
5-12 months 0.93 -20% Sebastian - Vero Beach, Florida
3-8 months 0.91 -26% Bradenton - Sarasota - Venice, Florida
at market bottom 0.79 -35% Naples - Marco Island, Florida
at market bottom 0.79 -34% Cape Coral - Fort Myers, Florida
at market bottom 0.76 -31% Punta Gorda, Florida

To calculate these figures, a heat index range of 0.75 to 0.85 is used as a proxy for the bottom of the local market.

real estate24 Feb 2009 11:51 am

Reviewing the heat index calculations used to produce today’s animated real estate heat maps I noticed that some areas have fallen below the 0.85 index value that typically represents the bottom of a market cycle. Because these areas have overshot the bottom, I am calling them devastated cities:

Rank Heat Index 1Yr Change City
1. 0.59 -50% Merced, California
2. 0.68 -41% Stockton, California
3. 0.70 -19% Monroe, Michigan
4. 0.73 -38% Modesto, California
5. 0.74 -17% Detroit - Livonia - Dearborn, Michigan
6. 0.75 -34% Salinas, California
7. 0.76 -36% Vallejo - Fairfield, California
7. 0.76 -33% El Centro, California
7. 0.76 -31% Punta Gorda, Florida
7. 0.76 -31% Yuba City, California
11. 0.79 -35% Naples - Marco Island, Florida
11. 0.79 -34% Cape Coral - Fort Myers, Florida
11. 0.79 -13% Bay City, Michigan
11. 0.79 -12% Warren - Troy - Farmington Hills, Michigan
15. 0.81 -9% Greeley, Colorado
15. 0.81 -6% Jackson, Michigan
17. 0.83 -10% Flint, Michigan
18. 0.83 -8% Ann Arbor, Michigan
real estate24 Feb 2009 10:53 am

It’s interesting to compare Q3 and Q4 2008 home prices side by side. There exists an apparent resilience in many low-cost, mostly rural, locales. Maybe it should not be surprising that areas with home prices above $200,000 are most affected by the credit crunch that defines this terrible recession, with states such as California, Florida, and Nevada continuing their declines.

With some Morgan Stanley analysts predicting low inflation for the next 2 years, the road to rapid housing asset price normalization would seem to now lay solely with outright price declines.

As inflation remains tame and credit tight, even modest nominal dollar home appreciation in urban areas appears unlikely for the next one to three years. Complicating the picture is that real-dollar home values are cycling downward and once-booming parts of the U.S. have another 20% to 30% further to drop before turning upward.

Given the pervasiveness of the current credit crunch, it is not clear to me that any other path is at present possible (or desired) than to get the worst of the fall behind us so that we may begin anew to focus on a path of rebuilding, growth, and opportunity.

The pretty animations above are compiled from data released today by the OFHEO. Methodology is that of my original home price heatmap. For the data nerds out there, you can download the compiled numerical results for Q3 2008 and Q4 2008.

Colors on the heat maps are keyed as follows: red is for homes that are selling above their historical price trend and blue highlights those states with sale prices below their long-term inflation adjusted trend based on same-home sales data that spans over 30 years, from 1975 through June 2008. Typically regions experience approximately 20 year cycles with values ranging from 85% to 115% of baseline with each city area following the march of a different drummer. However in this most recent ramp up, all major U.S. cities (and anecdotally globally as well) synchronized to be on the same boom-bust cycle.

currency& economy30 Sep 2008 11:20 pm

With the US Senate proposing to raise the FDIC insurance cap from $100,000 to $250,000 I thought that I would survey every country known to have or planning to have deposit insurance. Here’s how the U.S. stacks up.

Blogger’s Note: Table updated on October 12th 2008

Nation & URL Percent Guarantee Currency USD Guarantee in Dollars Notes
Albania 100% on first 350,000 350,000 ALL lekë 0.0130 $4,550 $8,418
85% on next 350,000 297,500 ALL lekë 0.0130 $3,868
Algeria 100% on first 600,000 600,000 DZD dinar 0.0161 $9,654
Argentina 100% on first 30,000 30,000 ARS pesos 0.3305 $9,915
Armenia 100% on first 2,000,000 2,000,000 AMD drams 0.0033 $6,600
Australia 100% on first unlimited unlimited AUD dollars 0.9707 unlimited after 12/31/11 will return to AUD$20,000
Austria 100% on first 20,000 20,000 EUR euros 1.5850 $31,700 5 programs exist; temporary unlimited guarantee on all deposits
Azerbaijan 100% on first 4,000 4,000 AZN manat 1.2346 $4,938
Bahamas 100% on first 50,000 50,000 BSD dollars 1.0025 $50,125
Bahrain 75% on first 20,000 15,000 BHD dinar 2.6522 $39,783
Bangladesh 100% on first 100,000 100,000 BDT taka 0.0146 $1,458
Barbados BBD dollars 0.5013 pending
Belarus 80% on first 2,676,250 2,141,000 BYR rubles 0.0005 $1,010
Belgium 100% on first 20,000 20,000 EUR euros 1.5850 $31,700
Bolivia pending
Bosnia and Herzegovina 100% on first 7,500 7,500 BAM marka 0.8102 $6,077
Brazil 100% on first 60,000 60,000 BRL reais 0.6291 $37,746
Bulgaria 100% on first 40,000 40,000 BGN leva 0.8110 $32,440
Cameroon pending
Canada 100% on first 100,000 100,000 CAD dollars 0.9931 $99,310 higher in some provinces
Canada
Canada
Central African Republic pending
Chad pending
Chile 90% on first 133 120 USD Unidades de Fomento 41.2331 $4,948 inflation adjusted system
China CNY 0.1466 planned
Colombia 75% on first 26,666,667 20,000,000 COP pesos 0.0006 $11,220
Congo pending
Costa Rica under study
Croatia 100% on first 100,000 100,000 HRK kuna 0.2195 $21,950
Cyprus 90% on first 22,222 20,000 EUR euros 1.5850 $31,700
Czech Republic 90% on first 27,778 25,000 EUR euros 1.5850 $39,625
Denmark 100% on first 300,000 300,000 DKK kroner 0.2124 $63,720 temporary unlimited guarantee on all deposits
Dominican Republic 100% on first unlimited unlimited DOP pesos 0.0292 unlimited
Ecuador 100% on first 12,200 12,200 USD dollars 1.0000 $12,200
El Salvador 100% on first 8,500 8,500 USD dollars 1.0000 $8,500
Equatorial Guinea pending
Estonia 90% on first 14,202 12,782 EUR euros 1.5850 $20,259
Finland 100% on first 25,000 25,000 EUR euros 1.5850 $39,625
France 100% on first 70,000 70,000 EUR euros 1.5850 $110,950
100% on first unlimited unlimited EUR euros 1.5850 unlimited notary managed accounts
Gabon pending
Georgia planned
Germany 90% on first 22,222 20,000 EUR euros 1.5850 $31,700 8 programs exist; on 10/5/08 the German gov’t offered unlimited protection for individuals
Gibraltar 90% on first 22,222 20,000 GBP pounds 1.9980 $39,960
Greece 100% on first 20,000 20,000 EUR euros 1.5850 $31,700
Guatemala 100% on first 20,000 20,000 GTQ quetzales 0.1358 $2,716
Honduras 100% on first 165,000 165,000 HNL lempiras 0.0529 $8,735
Hong Kong 100% on first 100,000 100,000 HKD dollars 0.1282 $12,820
Hungary 100% on first 6,000,000 6,000,000 HUF forint 0.0069 $41,616
Iceland 100% on first 20,887 20,887 EUR euros 1.5850 $33,106 unlimited guarantee for deposits located inside Iceland
India 100% on first 100,000 100,000 INR rupees 0.0234 $2,340
Indonesia 100% on first 100,000,000 100,000,000 IDR rupiah 0.0001 $10,930
Ireland 100% on first 100,000 100,000 EUR euros 1.5850 $158,500 unlimited guarantee at Allied Irish Bank, Bank of Ireland, Anglo Irish Bank, Irish Life and Permanent, Irish Nationwide Building Society and the Educational Building Society
Isle of Man 100% on first 30,000 30,000 GBP pounds 1.9980 $59,940 $95,904
90% on next 20,000 18,000 GBP pounds 1.9980 $35,964
Italy 100% on first 200,000,000 200,000,000 ITL lire 0.0008 $163,717 3 programs exist
Jamaica 100% on first 600,000 600,000 JMD dollars 0.0140 $8,424
Japan 100% on first 10,000,000 10,000,000 JPY yen 0.0094 $93,500
100% on first unlimited unlimited JPY yen 0.0094 unlimited non-interest accounts fully insured
Jordan 100% on first 10,000 10,000 JOD dinars 1.4137 $14,137
Kazakhstan 100% on first 700,000 700,000 KZT tenge 0.0083 $5,824
Kenya 100% on first 100,000 100,000 KES shillings 0.0151 $1,508
Korea 100% on first 50,000,000 50,000,000 KRW won 0.0010 $49,305
Kosovo under study
Kyrgyz Republic planned
Laos LAK kip 0.0001 unknown plan
Latvia 100% on first 15,000 15,000 EUR euros 1.5850 $23,775
Lebanon 100% on first 5,000,000 5,000,000 LBP pounds 0.0007 $3,317
Liechtenstein 100% on first 20,000 20,000 EUR euros 1.5850 $31,700
Lithuania 90% on first 19,308 17,377 EUR euros 1.5850 $27,543
Luxembourg 100% on first 20,000 20,000 EUR euros 1.5850 $31,700
Macedonia 100% on first 10,000 10,000 EUR euros 1.5850 $15,850 $31,700
90% on next 11,111 10,000 EUR euros 1.5850 $15,850
Malaysia 100% on first 60,000 60,000 MYR ringgit 0.3092 $18,552
Malta 90% on first 22,222 20,000 EUR euros 1.5850 $31,700
Marshall Islands 100% on first 100,000 100,000 USD dollars 1.0000 $100,000 FDIC insured
Mexico 100% on first 400,000 400,000 MXV Unidades de Inversion 0.3956 $158,243 inflation adjusted system
Micronesia 100% on first 100,000 100,000 USD dollars 1.0000 $100,000 FDIC insured
Moldova 100% on first 4,500 4,500 MDL lei 0.1028 $463
Mongolia planned
Montenegro EUR euros 1.5850 unknown plan
Morocco 100% on first 50,000 50,000 MAD dirhams 0.1379 $6,895
Netherlands 100% on first 100,000 100,000 EUR euros 1.5850 $158,500 returns to 38,000 euros on 10/7/2009
New Zealand planned
Nicaragua 100% on first 20,000 20,000 USD cordobas 1.0000 $20,000
Nigeria 100% on first 200,000 200,000 NGN naira 0.0084 $1,688
Norway 100% on first 2,000,000 2,000,000 NOK kroner 0.1966 $393,200
Oman 75% on first 26,667 20,000 OMR rial 2.5977 $51,954
Pakistan planned
Panama under study
Paraguay 100% on first 64,207,500 64,207,500 PYG guaranies 0.0003 $16,347
Peru 100% on first 82,845 82,845 PEN nuevos soles 0.3512 $29,095
Philippines 100% on first 250,000 250,000 PHP pesos 0.0226 $5,653
Poland 100% on first 1,000 1,000 EUR euros 1.5850 $1,585 $32,255
90% on next 21,500 19,350 EUR euros 1.5850 $30,670
Portugal 100% on first 5,000,000 5,000,000 PTE escudos 0.0079 $39,525
Puerto Rico 100% on first 100,000 100,000 USD dollars 1.0000 $100,000 FDIC insured
Romania 100% on first 12,522 12,522 RON lei 0.4454 $5,577
Russia 100% on first 100,000 100,000 RUB rubles 0.0431 $4,307 $17,228
90% on next 333,333 300,000 RUB rubles 0.0431 $12,921
Serbia 100% on first 5,000 5,000 CSD dinar 0.0173 $87
Singapore 100% on first 20,000 20,000 SGD dollars 0.7399 $14,798
Slovakia 90% on first 22,222 20,000 EUR euros 1.5850 $31,700
Slovenia 100% 25,025 25,025 EUR euros 1.5850 $39,665
South Africa pending
Spain 100% on first 20,000 20,000 EUR euros 1.5850 $31,700
Sri Lanka 100% on first 100,000 100,000 LKR rupees 0.0093 $930
Sudan SDD pounds 0.0043 unknown plan
Sweden 100% on first 500,000 500,000 SEK kronor 0.1676 $83,800 temporary unlimited guarantee on all deposits
Switzerland 100% on first 30,000 30,000 CHF francs 0.9776 $29,328 private banks
Switzerland 100% on first unlimited unlimited CHF francs 0.9776 unlimited cantonal banks
Taiwan 100% on first 1,500,000 1,500,000 TWD dollars 0.0330 $49,440
Tajikistan 100% on first 1,000 1,000 TJS somoni 0.2899 $290
Tanzania 100% 250,000 250,000 TZS shillings 0.0009 $214
Thailand planned
Trinidad and Tobago 100% 50,000 50,000 TTD dollars 0.1646 $8,230
Turkey 100% on first 50,000 50,000 TRY lira 0.8393 $41,965
Uganda 100% 3,000,000 3,000,000 UGX shillings 0.0006 $1,823
UK 100% on first 50,000 50,000 GBP pounds 1.9980 $99,900
Ukraine 100% 2,000 2,000 UAH hryvni 0.2179 $436
Uruguay UYU pesos 0.0522 unknown plan
USA 100% on first 250,000 250,000 USD dollars 1.0000 $250,000 after 12/31/09 will return to $100,000
100% on first 250,000 250,000 USD dollars 1.0000 $250,000 IRAs
Uzbekistan UZS som 0.0009 unknown plan
Venezuela 100% 10,000,000 10,000,000 VEB bolivares fuertes 0.0005 $4,657
Vietnam 100% on first 200,000 50,000,000 VND dong 0.0001 $2,958
Yemen YER rials 0.0050 unknown plan
Zimbabwe 100% on first 15,000,000 15,000,000 ZWD dollars 0.0000 $551

This is a work in progress — if you see any errors please let me know by leaving a comment.

economy& real estate25 Sep 2008 04:11 pm

$700B is a lot of money. The Paulson Plan is ok, but we can do much, much better and solve this embarrassing mess for less.

Instead of hastily approving Paulson’s plan, the U.S. Government should offer a single simple guarantee that would provide direct relief to both home owners and mortgage holders. Distressed homeowners would be allowed to make partial payments and mortgages would continue to be paid promptly and in full.

Under my proposal, mortgage holders may choose to apply to the U.S. government on behalf of all of their eligible delinquent and defaulting debtors, thereby keeping those homes that make a partial payment out of foreclosure and maintaining bank liquidity.

The government’s maximum monthly liability per home should be reasonably limited, such as to be no more than one half of one percent of the lower of either the original mortgage principal or the prevailing conforming loan limit.

And there would be certain easy to follow rules and conditions:

  • The guarantee would cover only owner-occupied homes, not investment and business properties.
  • The mortgages must be held by U.S. accredited banks and other gov’t regulated entities on an approved list, to protect the U.S. taxpayer.
  • The U.S. government would impose a special Federal Homeowner Bailout Tax and apply a Tax Lien against the property and pay that amount promptly to the lender.
  • The federal tax lien, and ultimately taxpayers, would accumulate 7% annual interest on any amounts paid on behalf of a delinquent or defaulting mortgage.
  • Since it’s a tax lien, when the home gets sold one day down the road, the government will be first in line to be paid.

This provides instant liquidity to mortgage holders.

This provides instant relief to home owners.

Comments?

real estate26 Aug 2008 05:33 pm

Right on track, adjusted same home sale prices are settling down. I expect a good deal more white and light blue in the final frame come the Q3 2008 data set that will be released by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight on November 25th.

Beyond 2008, the map will swell with a sea of blue ink. Long term averages require a balance between years of red and years of blue. Because the sharp upward shock in real estate prices was not an isolated regional event, I would expect the transient spike to rapidly dampen itself in a similarly synchronized fashion.

It is an open question whether regions that soared 40% above trend will merely drop to values 15% to 20% below trend as they have done in past corrections, or whether they will suffer an equal and opposite geometric penalty and sell for 28% below their expected long-term value. (In this context, expected long-term value takes into account both inflation and regional growth trends.) The outcome largely depends on how public policy will impact employment and the mortgage credit market over the course of the next six months.

The pretty animation above is compiled from data released today by the OFHEO. Methodology is the same as my original home price heatmap. For the data nerds out there, you can download the compiled numerical results.

Colors on the above map are keyed as follows: red is for homes that are selling above their historical price trend and blue highlights states where sale prices are below their long-term inflation adjusted trend based on same-home sales data that spans over 30 years, from 1975 through June 2008.

economy18 Jul 2008 07:23 pm

If nonfarm employment can be relied on as an indicator, then the U.S. is already in a recession.

Nonfarm Payroll 1940 to 2008

Even a cursory glance at this employment graph (click for larger version) generated at the St. Louis Federal Reserve FRED2 web site using data they obtained from the Current Employment Statistics survey speaks volumes.

The U.S. population is rising at around 1% but the number of American jobs is no longer growing. Moreover we appear on track for July 2008 to show our first year-over-year decline in employment since America pulled out of the 2001 recession.

It’s this actual decline in non-farm payroll numbers that has marked every official U.S. recession since 1940. We’re not quite there yet— June 2008 showed a 0.01% (one-hundredth of one percent) increase in jobs.

AdWords26 May 2008 01:12 am

An active bug in Google Adwords is letting spammers create ads that display
your URL but redirect to a spam site of their choosing, cloaking the redirect
so Google can’t tell what’s going on.

To see a sploaker in action, search Google for “Canon Rebel”.
You’ll find this ad that falsely claims to be from www.streetprices.com.

The user sees:

google result for canon rebel

When Google verifies the ad, they see:

streetprices result for canon rebel

But when the user follows the ad they get hijacked to this splink page:

bad guys canon rebel page

At the moment, these sploakers are “only” ruining your online
reputation and driving up the cost of advertising on AdWords.
But this could quickly get a lot worse, if they team up with
phishing sites that look and feel like your own site.
Using such a man-in-the-middle attack, they could steal your customers’
credit card numbers, SSNs, and login information…
and you could lose your customers’ business forever.

Google could take a big hit too. If users can’t rely on the displayed
URL to tell them where they will end up, they might stop clicking as
they lose faith in Google.

To see whether your site is affected, search your web logs for the
User Agent “AdsBot-Google (+http://www.google.com/adsbot.html)”
and look for urls you aren’t currently advertising at Adwords.

I notified Google last Friday, but I’m still seeing the issue.

So far I have noticed that pricefight.com is similarly affected.
Is anyone else seeing this?

Next Page »